Uncertainty assessment in hydrology is a topical research issue nowadays. We started working on this topic in 2001 with the aim to contribute to solve relevant practical problems related to reliability assessment of hydrological models.

The scientific literature proposed a lot of contributions focusing on uncertainty assessment in hydrology in the past 10 years, so that getting oriented in this subject is not easy. I recently authored some review papers and commentaries on this subject. Perhaps the most significant is the chapter "Uncertainty of Hydrological Predictions" to appear on "Treatise on Water Science" that will be shortly published by Elsevier. Please note that the linked files above are still a draft.

Another relevant reference is given by the special issue of Water Resources Research titled "Uncertainty assessment in surface and subsurface hydrology". The preface of the special issue can be downloaded here.

Part of our research activity was devoted to developing a meta-Gaussian model to assess the uncertainty in rainfall-runoff modelling, for both simulation (click here to download my 2004 paper published on Water Resources Research) and forecasting (click here to download my 2008 paper published on Water Resources Research).

A software is available for download to apply the method, for simulation and forecasting. They are plain text source file that run under the R environment. Please read the software documentation which is in the header of the file. Should you need assistance please let me know. Please drop me an e-mail when you download the file. The softwares are still betas and I would like to keep track of any user, so that I can inform them about any bug.

Please have a look at my conference presentations about uncertainty assessment.